Every year, there seems to be one toy that captures the imagination of the U.S. and becomes the "must-have" item of the holiday season. This year, it looks like that toy is the T.M.X. Elmo. T.M.X. Elmo stands for "Tickle Me Elmo X" (X as in ten, or "Extreme"). The toy was released Tuesday, Sept. 19, and has already sold out from most retail venues, making it the perfect toy to resell on eBay for a profit.
According to Hammertap's recent research, the dolls have been averaging $84 per Elmo, with total resale revenues of $1.6 million. The product retails for $40, so that's an average profit of $44 per Elmo, with people paying about double the retail amount to find this sold-out toy.
Some other "extreme" Elmo stats:
- A lot of 30 TMX Elmos sold for $3000 with a Buy It Now in Sept. 27. Shipping was $100. Yes, that's $100 per Elmo, not including shipping.
- A lot of 20 Elmos sold for $2500 with 1 bid on Sept. 22.
- An individual TMX Elmo sold for $299.99 on Sept. 20, one of the highest single prices for this doll I found on eBay.
- Some of the lowest prices for new TMX Elmos were around only $43, with most of those being around Sept. 19 and 20, close to the date Elmo just went on sale.
- Prices for TMX Elmos on amazon.com (all from private sellers) start at $137.99, with 103 available, and go all the way up to $2449.99 for an "English version."
Let's look at some more stats, these one pulled Sunday, Oct. 1 with the Hammertap DeepAnalysis tool:
- 100,000 auctions studied, total sales of TMX Elmos: $3,670,129.55.
- Number of auctions with sale: 41,160
- Number of sellers with sale: 11,307
- Average sales price per auction: $89.17
- Auction Success Rate: 93.85%
- Average number of sales per seller: 3.64
- Average revenue per seller: $324.59
A couple of odd price results show that a few lucky souls grabbed a TMX Elmo for a ridiculously low price...one sold for $0.01 with a BIN. If there was a catch, it was most likely with the nebulous wording of how much shipping would cost: "Shipping will be determined at auction's end."
To weed out prices for individual Elmo dolls, you can exclude keywords such as "lots," "lot," "3," "4," etc., from your research, says Jen Cano, PR Director at HammerTap. "You can also narrow your results to Regular, BIN, Dutch, or Store auctions."
Buy-It-Now Prices: Voulez-Vous un Elmo?
A quick search of current TMX Elmos on eBay with a BIN reveal that some of the lowest-priced are for the French version of the doll: several of these are listed around $55.95.
One the same results page, the lowest-priced regular TMX Elmos with a BIN were going for $65.00.
Getting the Best Price for Your Elmo
A cautionary note: when researching Elmo prices, you should do a quick search on both "TMX" and "T.M.X.," as sellers spell it both ways. But the spelling without periods seems to be most popular: "I found that those that used T.M.X. had a much lower sales price and success rate," says Cano. "When buyers are searching on eBay, they are not searching for "T.M.X.," they are searching for "TMX." This also means if you are looking to buy one on eBay, look for a "T.M.X." auction and it may save you $20, she adds.
Similarly, if you are a seller, you should include both spellings in your title if possible.
You can get information about what words to use in your auction on HammerTap's unique Keywords window. "This window provides an analysis for all the words in every listing so sellers can pinpoint which words were part of successful, high-priced listings," says Cano.
Cano counsels sellers not to settle for the average selling price, but to "let the research work for you to make more money." Her Elmo research took less than five minutes. "The results are laid out so clearly with figures and charts, that with just a quick glance you can find out how successful a product is. With a few more minutes you could easily find ten ways to make your listing more successful and more profitable," she says.
How Long Will Elmo Be Red-Hot?
Will TMX Elmo be in such high demand for long? "It's difficult to say because this doll is new on the market," says Cano. But she says you can use HammerTap's "Year Ago" feature to research other hot toys from last year to check out the likely trend for this doll.
Where's Elmo?
If you haven't bought your stash of TMX Elmos yet, they may be hard to come by from here on out. "I just spoke to a local KBToys rep and they said they were sold out from 10 minutes after opening on the 19th, and they have received over 1000 calls in the past week," wrote one seller on the eBay discussion boards.
But according to Fisher-Price general manager David Allmark, Elmos are still moving through the supply chain. "Although the reveal of "T.M.X." Elmo resulted in one of the single biggest pre-holiday toy launches in history, there is still plenty of product in the pipeline," he said. "It's important to note that not everything FP shipped to retailers has been sold. The retailers are working to replenish their shelves now, and FP is working to replenish the retailers' distribution centers. FP is planning to ship product on a continual basis right through the holidays."
The eBay seller who had spoken to KB Toys said he was told at the time that the store was receiving a shipment of 15 in tomorrow "but after that they do not know." "So far I've spent $160 + $96 + $42 = $298 on 7 Elmos and it seems like I should be making my money back," said another.
My own expedition to my local Target didn't score me an Elmo, but that was no surprise. There was a display with TMX Elmo gift cards, and of course all the cards were gone. But I got my Elmo thrill Saturday when I dropped by the National Book Fair in Washington, DC: there standing in line was Elmo himself, Kevin Clash, promoting his new memoir, "My Life as a Furry Red Monster: What Being Elmo Has Taught Me About Life, Love and Laughing Out Loud."
Clash got me a signed copy to buy, and on it he scribbled - guess what? A number to call to get a free TMX Elmo. Maybe the best way to get an Elmo now is to follow Elmo on his book tour.
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Julia Wilkinson is the author of "The eBay Price Guide," (No Starch Press, 2006 powered by Hammertap) and "eBay Top 100 Simplified Tips & Tricks" (Wiley, 2004-6); as well as "What $ells on eBay for What" (http://www.aolmemorabilia.com/whatsells.html). Her newsletter, Yard Salers and eBayers is at http://www.yardsalersebayers.com, and her blog "bidbits" is at http://blogs.gowholesale.com/julia_wilkinson.
