Collins Stewart expects worldwide ecommerce to reach $509.5 billion in 2010, up 14% from 2009, while in the U.S. it expects ecommerce to reach $142.9 billion in 2010, up 9% from 2009. The Wall Street firm also expects intensifying competition in 2010, namely Amazon vs. eBay, pure-play ecommerce vs. multi-channel retailers (Wal-Mart & Target).

Sandeep Aggarwal, Senior Internet & Software Research Analyst for Collins Stewart LLC, also forecast global ecommerce sales will reach $694 billion in 2012, up from $448 billion in 2009. He wrote in a research report on Monday that he expects a material rebound in eBay's Marketplaces and LT growth for PayPal business to exceed ecommerce growth in 2010.

We believe that in addition to the benefits from the changes already implemented at Marketplaces over the past 12-15 months (such as emphasis on DSR, changes in search, encouraging free shipping, buyer protection, fee changes etc.), there are many new initiatives that either were implemented in Q4 or are about to deliver their first full quarter of positive impact (such as TRS, Fashion Vault, fee changes, migration from double discounts to single discounts for free shipping, and Google advertising relationship). In our view, due to fee changes, eBay is experiencing a huge jump in overall listings and selection with improving listings conversion and GMV per listing.

Link to Collins Stewart report (in PDF format).