From time-to-time I see magazine, newspaper, or Internet comments about toy trains being sold at auction or on eBay for astronomical, record prices. That does happen, but to assume that the value of most collectible trains is consistently increasing, would be a mistake. Toy trains that fetch extremely high prices are those that are very rare, extremely hard to find, and in superb condition. On the other hand, with some exceptions, the majority of toy trains have been slowly decreasing in value. For example, a postwar Lionel car that sold for $115 eight or ten years ago might sell now for $100.

The toy train market is not collapsing. What seems to be happening is that while the number of people collecting toy trains is decreasing, the number of people operating and enjoying toy train layouts is increasing. These "operators" are most often buying new trains, typically made in China, of excellent quality; and sold for very competitive prices. The new trains might be manufactured for Lionel, MTH, or any of several American companies. They generally have metal trucks, wheels and couplers, and have great detail. They are lighter than most of the old postwar trains so it becomes possible to run longer trains with more cars than was possible in the past. Some of the new trains feature radio remote control, realistic sound effects, and other features that were not economically possible twenty or twenty-five years ago.

Some people buying and running the newer trains might simply use them during the holidays, or they might have a simple 4 by 8 or 4 by 6 foot layout, for example, that can be easily stored. They might build a small section of a layout that can be incorporated into a much larger layout, displayed and run by a train club at train shows. Some folks build elaborate layouts somewhere in their home, or they build a garden railroad, which can be run outdoors. There are even some companies that will build impressive layouts for you.

I suppose that many toy train collectors, like me, grew up at a time when we could hear, and sometimes see, giant steam locomotives chugging up inclines and pulling long lines of freight cars. As a child, I remember visits to a local railroad station where I waved to the engineers on some of the locomotives. Sometimes they would wave back. There is a nostalgia factor, where just looking at toy trains brings back pleasant memories, but many younger people never had the same opportunity. Still, when we occasionally visit a railroad museum, it is hard not to be impressed while standing next to one of these railroad giants, and often young people and children can be observed standing in awe of the old locomotives.

The bottom line is that, with some exceptions, most collectible toy trains will probably continue to decline in value for the next several years. I am not willing to predict what might happen to the market for very rare trains, except that the odds of finding such rare trains unexpectedly, is probably close to the likelihood of winning the lottery. Most people who have such gems, and want to sell, will probably do so with a private sale or through a well-known auction house.

Is the Toy Train Hobby Good for Kids
I can't speak from the perspective of a psychologist, but over the years it is interesting that many of the people I have known, or spoken with, who had successful technology careers, had toy trains as a child. Quite a bit can be learned by playing with toy trains, basic principles of electricity, physics principles, etc. For example if you run a train too fast around a curve, it will go off the track. Math concepts are learned by building accurately scaled layout, and children can learn whether or not they have the patience, dexterity, interest, and other skills necessary to construct a toy train layout.

Personally I favor O-gauge trains for kids, because they are large enough and generally sturdy enough for younger children to handle and work with easily, as compared to HO gauge trains. Finally, good, used O-gauge trains can usually be purchased at a train-show or train-meet for very reasonable prices. It is still a great hobby for youngsters who are interested.